Imagine finding out you've run out of milk immediately after pouring a bowl of cereal. Or maybe realizing you don't have eggs while in the middle of baking a cake. We've all been there, and it's frustrating, to say the least. And this scene has been playing around the globe over the last couple of years for many foods and products. One day it's microchip shortages, and the next, it's baby formula.

Unfortunate as it is, it's one thing for consumers to cope with an empty car lot because of chip shortages. It's another to cope with a hungry infant because store shelves that once contained baby formula are now bare. For those parents and caretakers, their emotions are beyond feeling frustrated. They feel anger and panic, the sort of emotions that they share with their friends and colleagues on social media and forums. The kind of expression that can change the public's sentiment about a company, which in turn can move markets.

This Alternative Data Trends post will examine web data concerning the baby formula shortage. We'll analyze articles, social media, and forum conversations culminating in the U.S. crisis as the news reaches national exposure. We'll also highlight red flags investors could've seen had they monitored the situation with an AI-powered text analysis tool like SESAMm's TextReveal®.

Early warnings: When baby formula supplies began to run dry vs. when it became a national crisis

If we compare absolute and relative volumes—relative being mentions about the topic compared to our entire data lake—the term "formula milk market" yields parallel results. Mentions spike in May when the crisis reaches national coverage (see Figure 1).

However, comparing absolute and relative volumes for the term "formula milk shortage," we find red flags as early as January 2022, four months before the crisis receives national attention (see Figure 2). Relative mentions spike on three occasions before absolute volumes register any significant noise. The fourth instance matches a ripple on the absolute chart.

These articles provide an example of the content published around the times of those rises in mentions:

1. Jan. 12, 2022: "Baby Formula Is Hard to Find. Brands and Stores Are Divided Over Why.," WSJ
2. Feb. 9, 2022: "Baby formula shortage has some families scrambling," WCAX-CBS
3. Mar. 7, 2022: "Baby formula shortage and recalls affecting families," KGUN-ABC
4. Apr. 11, 2022: "A shortage of baby formula is worsening and causing some stores to limit sales," WHYY-PBS

Analyzing the sentiment and polarity of the formula milk market

In short, the e-reputation of the formula milk market has been negative since the beginning of 2022 (see Figure 3). Positive sentiment drops and reflects the opposing negative sentiment almost exactly until May, when the news about the crisis breaks. Likewise, polarity trends downward over the same period.

Note: Polarity represents a company's aggregate of positive and negative sentiment (opinions, reviews), ranging from -1 to 1. A zero score means that there is as much positive as negative sentiment. High e-reputation brands can have polarity scores of more than 0.5.

The web data shows that some articles correlate with sentiment and polarity changes. For instance, in February, AboutLawsuits.com posted, "Similac and Enfamil Baby Formula Shortages Create Infant Feeding Challenges." And in May, HealthDay, a prominent syndicator of health news, posts, "U.S. Baby Formula Shortage Worsens."

Analyzing formula milk brands

In the U.S., four brands produce the bulk of formula milk: Abbott, Mead Johnson, Nestlé, and Perrigo. Abbott and Nestlé hold the largest share of the formula milk market.

When we group these four brands' mentions from January 2021 to June 2022, we can see how their mention volumes compare (Figure 4). For example, at the beginning of the graph, we can see that Abbott and Nestlé have more mention-volume relative to their market share. However, at the end of 2021, Mead Johnson and Abbott experience spikes in mentions due to lawsuits against their formulas. Then, in Q1 2022, Abbott mentions increased drastically after its formulas were recalled due to possible contamination, taking more than 75% of the mention volume.

Analyzing ESG risks by company

Evaluating the top four brands' ESG risks reveals red flags as early as May 2021, when Abbott was fined for including a banned flavoring in its baby formula (see Figure 5). And most red flags were raised before the national shortage crisis was publicized widely.

Besides Abbott, most brands' risks remained low during 2021. However, ESG risks increase during Q1 2022 for all four major formula milk brands. The FDA warned consumers against using specific Abbott formulas during an investigation of infant illnesses possibly caused by Abbott's formulas. Perrigo settles a lawsuit from the State of California over baby formula lead levels. And a panel of federal judges centralizes many baby formula lawsuits into one federal court, including cases against Mead Johnson. Nestlé stays below the 5% threshold throughout, with little to no controversies found.

Three tactics and a summary

The baby formula market in the U.S. has been volatile for many reasons, which we won't get into in this article. However, this volatility could be seen and planned for. In this case, here are some tactics you can take to minimize your investment risks:

1. Employ a tool like SESAMm’s TextReveal to evaluate web data for insights into your investments. With premiere NLP technology, you can uncover sentiment and ESG insights about your industry, portfolio companies, or current investments.
   
   
2. Expand your research term for deeper insights. In this study, the term "formula milk market" had matching absolute and relative volumes. From this view, nothing looks out of place, and there aren't any red flags. However, when we expanded our research with the term "formula milk shortage," we found many controversies before the crisis gained national attention.
   
   
3. Dig into the controversies' causes. It's not enough to acknowledge a red flag. It would be best if you looked into what the potential reason is. Is the controversy caused by external factors or internal ones? Maybe both? Is the issue a one-time occurrence, or is it a pattern? So it's essential to avoid black-box tools. With solutions such as TextReveal that allow you to see beyond, you can access the underlying articles triggering the red flags.

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The aerospace and defense industry is essential to global technology and transportation, playing a crucial role in maintaining international security and connectivity. However, this sector faces intense scrutiny due to its significant impact on ESG factors. Amidst challenges like safety lapses and whistleblower revelations, stakeholders are increasingly relying on advanced AI technologies to gain insights into potential controversies. Such technologies have enabled a deeper understanding of the complex ESG issues that permeate the industry, revealing not only the specific challenges faced by companies like Boeing but also providing a broader view of the sector's commitment to corporate responsibility and sustainability.

This article explores the aerospace industry and its ESG challenges, backed up by a case study of industry giant Boeing. It also explains how we used SESAMm’s AI-powered tools to detect these controversies beforehand.

Aerospace and Defense Market Mentions

The top market players in the aerospace and defense industry command 8.3% of the overall market's online mentions. This sector is increasingly scrutinized for its ESG practices amidst technological advancements and global policy shifts.

Media Sentiment in the Aerospace Industry

In this study, we ran our AI tools through our data lake to extract the major market players: Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Airbus, and Boeing, with the time frame starting from 2015 to date. The data reveals a notable peak in online mentions of the market trend, mainly following Boeing’s plane crash controversies. Post-2018, we noticed a general upward trend for Airbus and Boeing, indicating their increasing dominance or recovery in the market. This trend demonstrates the shifting landscape of the aerospace industry, where competition is intense, and the share of mentions can reflect broader market movements and company-specific developments.

(*): Polarity or sentiment polarity represents a company's aggregate of positive and negative sentiment (opinions, reviews), ranging from -1 to 1. A zero score means that there is as much positive as negative sentiment. High e-reputation brands can have polarity scores of more than 0.5.

The sentiment across the aerospace market reflects the industry’s highs and lows. On one hand, there are moments of significant achievements like new contracts and technological breakthroughs that drive companies like Lockheed Martin to positive media highlights. Between 2016 and 2018, Lockheed Martin experienced a surge in positive mentions due to key contract wins and proactive company initiatives, which have contributed to maintaining its reputation and market value.

Conversely, the industry faces intense scrutiny over various controversies, notably those surrounding Boeing. The company, a dominant figure in the market, has been at the center of numerous negative headlines, giving it the lowest sentiment polarity among its peers. Issues range from serious safety lapses, such as the tragic 737 MAX crashes throughout the years, to ongoing legal challenges and whistleblower claims that overshadow its governance practices. These incidents have not only affected Boeing’s sentiment negatively but have also influenced the overall perception of the aerospace and defense sector, highlighting the industry's susceptibility to reputational risks.

Macro Themes

The aerospace sector, while essential for global connectivity, has not been without its controversies, especially concerning safety and compliance issues. Among the major players, Boeing's significant share of media mentions is primarily driven by a series of high-profile accidents, including the 737 MAX crashes in 2019, killing all passengers and another serious incident in South China in 2022. These accidents triggered a cascade of lawsuits and fines, severely impacting Boeing’s public perception and operational standing. The aftermath of these incidents also precipitated broader discussions around leadership changes, management practices, safety protocols, and accountability measures within the company.

Similarly, Airbus has faced its own challenges, with notable accidents in 2015 in France and 2016 in the Mediterranean Sea, followed by another in 2020, resulting in 97 fatalities. These incidents underline the persistent safety risks inherent in aerospace operations and the critical need for stringent oversight.
Accusations of ethical and legal violations also loom large across the industry. Boeing, for example, has been embroiled in numerous investigations and lawsuits related to various accusations. Meanwhile, other industry giants like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin have faced legal actions over environmental and contracting practices, such as Northrop’s involvement in residential chemical contamination and Lockheed’s settlement over accusations of overcharging the Navy. General Dynamics has also encountered legal scrutiny over employment practices and allegations of human rights and privacy violations.

These controversies highlight a complex landscape of operational, legal, and ethical challenges in the aerospace industry. Each incident not only affects the involved company but also catalyzes shifts in regulatory practices and leadership strategies, underscoring the need for robust governance and proactive risk management to uphold safety and integrity in aerospace operations.

ESG Analysis

The influence of ESG factors on public perception and internal company policies within the aerospace industry is profound. Governance issues, in particular, continue to be a critical focus as aerospace companies confront challenges related to compliance, ethical practices, and transparency. Social factors are also prominent, with labor practices and safety standards critically influencing operational and strategic decision-making. Environmental considerations are escalating in importance as the industry progresses towards more sustainable practices, driven by increasing concerns over climate change and environmental sustainability.

Northrop Grumman illustrates an aspect of ESG concerns with specific environmental risks linked to its operations. Accusations have surfaced against Northrop Grumman for its role in environmental degradation, such as pollution from manufacturing plants and involvement in contamination incidents at residential sites. These issues not only affect the company’s environmental track record but also impact its social standing and governance integrity. The company also displays some governance risks related to its total mentions volume driven by accusations of fueling false ‘Revenge Porn’ allegations against CIA whistleblower John Kiriakou as well as legal investigations driven by Northrop Grumman investors over its claims to recover their losses and class action lawsuits over claims of a breach of fiduciary duty.

The aerospace sector’s engagement with these ESG factors indicates a shift towards addressing the critical issues facing the industry. Boeing ranks first in terms of risks, with social risks having the highest share, followed by Airbus, with risks coming from social issues such as customer relations, fundamental human rights, and governance risks mainly related to its fraud, bribery, and corruption charges. This shift is not just about mitigating risks but also about harnessing opportunities to enhance corporate responsibility and ensure long-term sustainability.

Deep Dive into Boeing: ESG Risks and Public Perception

The aerospace industry has faced increasing scrutiny over its ESG practices. Among the key players, the American aerospace company Boeing has been prominently featured in media discussions, not only due to its market distinction but also because of its ESG challenges that have sparked significant controversy.

Boeing Word Cloud

This word cloud visually represents the main online topics surrounding Boeing, particularly focusing on the issues and controversies related to the 737 Max aircraft. Key terms like "737 Max," "Boeing," "safety," "death," and "FAA" are prominently displayed, indicating these as central themes in the discussion. The size of each word in the cloud signifies its frequency and importance in related discussions, with larger words being more prevalent. This visualization encapsulates a range of associated topics such as "lawsuit," "Senate hearing," and "missed inspections," highlighting the broad spectrum of regulatory, safety, and ethical issues that have dominated public and media discourse regarding Boeing.

Boeing ESG Analysis

According to TextReveal’s findings, since 2019, Boeing's ESG risks have intensified, particularly in social and governance, leading to a substantial impact on its public image and stock performance. The company's struggles with governance issues are well-documented, encompassing major safety lapses that resulted in the tragic crashes of the 737 MAX aircraft in the span of six months in Indonesia and Ethiopia. These events have not only led to a loss of life but also raised serious questions about the company's commitment to safety protocols and ethical standards.

Social risks at Boeing are also prominent, with multiple incidents involving customer relations and human capital management. Notably, the company has faced significant scrutiny regarding its response to the 737 MAX crashes, highlighting deficiencies in transparency and accountability in dealing with the fallout. The handling of these incidents resulted in widespread public distrust, significantly damaging Boeing's relationships with airlines, regulatory bodies, and the flying public. Issues such as delays in disclosing software malfunctions and the initial reluctance to ground the fleet have led to accusations of prioritizing profit over passenger safety. Furthermore, Boeing's labor practices have also come under fire. There have been multiple instances of tension with labor unions over contract negotiations, job cuts, and factory conditions, which exacerbate the social risks by affecting employee morale and productivity. These labor disputes and the perceived erosion of safety standards contribute to a challenging environment, complicating Boeing's efforts to rebuild trust and ensure operational stability.

Early Signs: Whistleblowers

We used TextReveal's analytics capabilities to track the prevalence of whistleblower mentions within the aerospace industry, with data pointing back as far as 2019. This tool has effectively highlighted ongoing concerns and patterns related to corporate governance and safety issues.

Boeing has also been facing whistleblower retaliation. High-profile cases involving whistleblowers like John Barnett, who was found dead under mysterious circumstances, and Sam Salehpour, who reported safety shortcuts and received physical threats, illustrate the perilous environment for those who challenge the status quo. These whistleblowers' stories, while distressing, shed light on a culture that may prioritize expediency over thoroughness and safety.

One of the most significant cases involved John Barnett, a former quality manager at Boeing, who raised alarms about critical safety lapses in the production of the 787 Dreamliner. Barnett claimed that faulty parts were knowingly installed on planes, potentially endangering passengers. His revelations were met with hostility and retaliation, resulting in his tragic and suspicious death, which was officially ruled as a suicide. This case has fueled widespread media coverage and public outcry, questioning the integrity of Boeing’s internal safety practices and the treatment of employees who report such critical issues.

Another well-known whistleblower, Ed Pierson, reported concerns about the 737 MAX's manufacturing process, specifically pointing to the rushed production schedules that he believed compromised safety. His testimony before congressional hearings helped to expose a "profit over safety" mentality that appeared to saturate Boeing’s management practices. Pierson’s allegations were particularly damaging as they were directly linked to the two fatal crashes of the 737 MAX, which tragically resulted in 346 deaths.

Sam Salehpour, a Boeing engineer, also came forward with allegations of manufacturing shortcuts that compromised the structural integrity and safety of Boeing aircraft. Like others, Salehpour faced significant backlash from superiors and was reportedly blackballed within the industry for his outspokenness, highlighting the severe personal and professional risks faced by whistleblowers within the air travel giant.

The cumulative effect of these whistleblower cases has led to significant scrutiny from regulatory bodies, the media, and the public. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has stepped up its oversight of Boeing, leading to fines, increased regulations, and a temporary grounding of the 737 MAX fleet. These incidents have sparked broader discussions about the need for systemic reforms within the aerospace industry to ensure that safety and ethical standards are not only upheld but prioritized over financial incentives.

How does SESAMm Detect ESG

Navigating the vast amounts of data available is a significant challenge when conducting this type of analysis. At SESAMm, our experts begin with a comprehensive sentiment analysis of the industry and its key players. By examining trends, particularly spikes in data volume or shifts in sentiment—both positive and negative—they can pinpoint the issues and controversies driving these changes. Following this, our team conducts a thematic deep dive into the topics most relevant to the industry, providing a nuanced understanding of the issues that are particularly sensitive for stakeholders. With these insights in hand, our team then moves to company-specific analyses and benchmarking to assess how individual companies perform relative to their peers.

SESAMm's TextReveal® platform plays a significant role in identifying and understanding the complex web of controversies within industries such as aerospace. Through its algorithms, the platform sifts through vast amounts of data from diverse sources like news outlets, social media, and corporate disclosures to detect subtle cues and patterns that might indicate emerging ESG controversies. This robust data collection and analysis enable SESAMm to pinpoint issues related to whistleblower activities, safety violations, and governance lapses well before they gain widespread attention. By integrating this intelligence, SESAMm facilitates a deeper understanding of the underlying factors contributing to these controversies, aiding stakeholders in navigating the intricate dynamics of corporate accountability and regulatory compliance.

SESAMm's TextReveal® platform provides a comprehensive suite of ESG analytics tools that leverage extensive data collection from news outlets, social media, corporate disclosures, and NGO reports, ensuring thorough coverage of emerging and underreported ESG issues. Utilizing advanced artificial intelligence, the platform analyzes sentiments and contextual nuances within this data to identify positive and negative ESG indicators, helps stakeholders measure public sentiment before issues escalate, and makes accurate business decisions. Additionally, its capability to identify and map relationships between entities such as companies, individuals, and products to various ESG issues is crucial for assessing how internal dynamics influence a company’s overall ESG profile.

TextReveal® also employs predictive analytics to foresee potentil ESG controversies, enabling proactive risk management and strategic planning. Moreover, it offers detailed ESG reporting and scoring, providing quantifiable insights into a company’s ESG performance, which is invaluable for investors and analysts. Lastly, the platform’s analysis of the influence of key individuals on ESG practices offers deeper insights into leadership effectiveness and ethical compliance, making SESAMm's tools essential for integrating ESG considerations into comprehensive corporate strategy and maintaining competitive advantage in a socially conscious market environment.

Conclusion

Navigating the complexities of ESG risk management requires a shift from traditional methods to more advanced, AI-driven approaches. AI's ability to analyze vast amounts of unstructured data enables early detection of hidden risks, as demonstrated in our case study on Boeing. Using AI, we identified emerging controversies around Boeing's safety practices, quality control, and governance issues before they escalated, showcasing the technology's potential for proactive risk management.

Incorporating AI into ESG assessments allows private equity firms and other stakeholders to move beyond reactive strategies. By detecting potential risks early, firms can safeguard their investments, protect their reputations, and align with a growing emphasis on responsible investing. Embracing AI-driven tools is not just about keeping pace with market demands—it's about ensuring a more secure, transparent, and sustainable approach to investment in an ESG-focused world.

Reach out to SESAMm

TextReveal’s web data analysis of over five million public and private companies is essential for keeping tabs on ESG investment risks. To learn more about how you can analyze web data or to request a demo, reach out to one of our representatives.

In our most recent webinar, "Unmasking Greenwashing: How to Identify Genuine and Deceiving Sustainability Initiatives with AI," Sylvain Forté, SESAMm’s CEO and Co-founder, discussed our recent ebook entitled with the same name focusing on the vital role of AI in identifying and understanding ESG controversies, focusing on greenwashing and reputational laundering.

Greenwashing, the act of misleadingly portraying products or services as environmentally friendly, and reputational laundering, where companies create a facade of ethical behavior, are increasingly prevalent challenges. These practices mislead investors and consumers, obscuring the reality of a company's environmental impact. Our webinar highlighted the complexity of these issues and their relevance across various industries.

We discussed how AI technology is revolutionizing the detection of greenwashing and reputational laundering. By analyzing vast amounts of web data, including news articles, social media, and public records, AI uncovers patterns and red flags that might indicate deceptive practices. This is particularly pertinent for stakeholders in the financial sector, such as private equity firms, who must navigate the intricate landscape of ESG compliance and sustainability.

Our recent research study underscored the importance of this technology. We found that mentions of greenwashing and related controversies have grown exponentially over the years. This increase aligns with a rising global awareness of environmental issues and the demand for corporate transparency. AI's ability to sift through and analyze this growing body of data is invaluable in providing accurate, timely insights into potential ESG risks.

We also noted an interesting trend: while greenwashing mentions are increasing, their growth rate is slowing down. This suggests that as regulatory frameworks around ESG become more formalized and the market becomes more educated, instances of unintentional greenwashing decrease. It's a sign that clearer rules are helping companies avoid these pitfalls.

Our analysis also revealed that different industries experience varying levels of exposure to greenwashing claims. Sectors like food, drug retail, and oil and gas have seen significant increases in accusations of reputational laundering. However, we also observed a positive trend in the fashion industry, where regulatory frameworks have led to a decrease in greenwashing mentions.

Lastly, we highlighted the importance of distinguishing between negative and positive ESG mentions. While it's crucial to identify and monitor greenwashing allegations, it's equally important to recognize and support genuine sustainability initiatives. Our analysis showed that positive ESG initiatives often have a more significant impact on public perception than negative ones.

Watch the webinar replay now:

Reach out to SESAMm

TextReveal's web data analysis of over five million public and private companies is essential for keeping tabs on ESG investment risks. To learn more about how you can analyze web data or request a demo, contact one of our representatives.