Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. (TMNF) tapped SESAMm for a joint research venture to predict future stock price movements and discovered two key findings:

1. NLP data from news and social networking websites can have strong relationships with investor behavior. Thus, it’s possible to forecast investors’ rational reactions to changes in data and price movements based on those relationships.
   
   
2. NLP data proved to help anticipate tail events. For example, given the macroeconomic environment of the last 10 years, the stock market performed well. So in this context, investors are sensitive to negative narratives in times of uncertainty, such as the 2015 market sell-off, the U.S.-China trade war, the coronavirus pandemic, and the start of the Ukraine-Russian war, and post their concerns online.

Providing safety and security since 1879

Tokio Marine Insurance Company was first established in 1879. Over the years, it has added products and services, acquired other businesses, and merged with other companies to eventually become Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. Commonly called Tokio Marine Nichido today, the company is a property and casualty insurance subsidiary of Tokio Marine Holdings, the largest non-mutual private insurance group in Japan. Its products and services provide safety and security to its clients and partners, contributing to more fulfilling lifestyles and business development.

One of the company’s philosophies is to be a good corporate citizen and fulfill its social responsibilities, including protecting the global environment, promoting human rights, creating a responsible working environment, and contributing to society and individual local communities. Recently, the Emperor of Japan awarded Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. the Medal with Dark Blue Ribbon for donating to the Japan Student Services Organization to support students who face financial difficulty during the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals, corporations, or organizations are awarded the Medal with Dark Blue Ribbon for their outstanding contributions to the public.

Transforming and accepting the challenge to grow

According to TMNF, “The business environment surrounding the insurance industry is changing at a faster pace than ever due to changes in demographics, advances in technologies, such as autonomous driving and AI, and longer-term trends, such as the intensification and frequent occurrence of natural disasters, as well as further progress in digitalization due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“The business environment surrounding the insurance industry is changing at a faster pace than ever…”

“While these changes in the business environment pose a threat, we consider them to be excellent opportunities for transformation and the creation of new value.” So they’ve adopted the concept, “Transformation (“X”) and Challenge to Growth 2023: Aiming to be the company most chosen for quality and its passion.” Ultimately, it strives to support customers and local communities in times of need while contributing to social responsibility. Five social issues that it will prioritize are:

• Global climate change and the increase in natural disasters
• The increased burden of long-term care and healthcare due to the aging of society and advances in medical technology
• Technological innovation and its effects on the environment
• Symbiotic society and responding to the novel coronavirus
• Industrial infrastructure and how it supports economic growth and innovation

Leveraging a partner with the right technology

To secure and protect its clients’ assets while elevating social issues, Tokio Marine Nichido sought out an edge in the stock market. Under these circumstances, it was fortunate that TMNF discovered SESAMm in 2020 through the Plug and Play Japan program, a platform with an event that connects Japan to markets abroad. SESAMm had presented its NLP alternative data solution, TextReveal®, to which TMNF considered the platform for access to alternative data and sought collaboration with the SESAMm team for a research project.

“SESAMm has the technology to extract text sentiment from news data with a neural network.”
– Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. Ltd representative

Extract relations between NLP data and the financial market

In 2021, Tokio Marine Nichido Insurance began collaborating with SESAMm to develop an AI analytics model for alternative data. It models the impact of news and social networking data on investor behavior for stock and bond markets, transforming text information into knowledge usable by TMNF. For instance, when the model detects a negative narrative raising uncertainty in the market, investors can use this signal to reduce their risk exposure.

Predicting future stock price movements from news and social media data

Tokio Marine Nichido and SESAMm’s joint research found that natural language data from news and social networking sites effectively predict future stock price movements. In the case involving the pandemic, for example, there was a time lag of as long as a month between the time COVID-19 became news and the time it affected the U.S. stock market (Figure 1). By using SESAMm’s technology to analyze news data during this period, the team found that US news and social networking sentiment had already deteriorated sharply before stock prices reacted. This sentiment deterioration is due to the fear of the coronavirus-spread effect on the global economy. In an all-time high S&P 500, U.S. investors did not initially consider this risk. In comparison, HSI companies were closer to the coronavirus spread risk, resulting in HSI investors reacting ahead of those in the U.S.

The model can calculate sentiment for each company by analyzing the news of individual companies. It’s also possible to create a composite to measure the sentiment related to a stock index. The sentiment data also helps management and investor relations because it provides a quantitative means of understanding the extent to which investors are concerned about certain news about their company.

Verifying the results

Verification using Japanese has revealed that the timing of bottoming and ceiling of text sentiment precedes those of stock prices. The collaborating team compared the performance of:

• A model that uses only orthodox financial and economic data as inputs
• A model that considers NLP and financial and economic data, confirming that the latter could generate higher alpha

Since measuring sentiment is mean reversionary by nature, the TMNF team believes it provides good support for position management during rallies and crashes. It’s also valuable for avoiding forced loss-cut at the bottom when liquidity temporarily evaporates and the market crashes.

Expanding the research to other use cases

In addition to analyzing the stock market, Tokio Marine Nichido also expanded the scope of the research to include R&D on using natural language data in trading U.S. high-yield bonds. Research shows that NLP data can help provide a hedging signal for the negatively skewed high-yield market (Figure 3) by capturing deteriorating text sentiment (Figure 5). For example, these signals can inform investors to reduce positions before market reactions.

TMNF is also applying the research to estimate the Fed’s stance—hawkish or dovish—using natural language data, too. It hypothesizes that the market will be focused on the Fed’s stance on interest rate hikes in the next few years.

“The model developed in collaboration with SESAMm is simple in structure, yet, it’s an orthodox and robust model that uses valid data as input.”

Summarizing the collaboration

In developing models, Tokio Marine Nichido believes it is essential to consider “what data to consider” and to keep it simple. And TMNF achieved these tenets. The model developed in collaboration with SESAMm is simple in structure, yet, it’s an orthodox and robust model that uses valid data as input which is preferable to a risky over-fitting by increasing complexity.

Get in touch with SESAMm

To learn more about Tokio Marine Nichido’s case study or to request a TextReveal demo, reach out to us here:

Client: Raiffeisen Bank International

Industry: Corporate Banking and Finance

Location: Austria

Use case: ESG alerts and monitoring

SESAMm solution: TextReveal^® API and Dashboards

Introduction

Raiffeisen Bank International’s (RBI) Advanced Analytics and AI Tribe is crucial to the bank’s operations. The team delivers, maintains, and operates AA&AI (digital) solutions allowing Retail and Whole-Sale Banking to increase revenues (and to fulfill their role as the first line of defense). They are pioneers in using cloud-based infrastructure. With more than 50 data scientists, data engineers, machine learning engineers, and cloud engineers, they play a crucial role in transforming RBI into a data-driven company.

The AA&AI tribe at RBI recognized a significant opportunity in SESAMm, a leading AI-powered analytics, and data solutions provider. SESAMm’s solutions offer access to an extensive range of web-based information, which is otherwise challenging to obtain. This data is critical for RBI’s operations, enabling the bank to stay ahead of the curve regarding market trends, consumer preferences, and industry insights.

Key successes for RBI after working with SESAMm include:

• Generated analytics on clients to specifically monitor companies exposed to the Ukraine war, enabling the bank to proactively identify potential risks and minimize its exposure to geopolitical events.
• Integrated specific languages within RBI’s core market, including Russian, Romanian, Slovak, Czech, and Polish, improving the bank’s ability to analyze and understand regional data.
• Integrated SESAMm’s data with RBI’s internal visualization dashboard, allowing the bank to leverage the insights generated by SESAMm’s AI-powered analytics to improve decision-making and drive business growth.

Why RBI chose SESAMm: Coverage, early warning signals, and customizability

Raiffeisen Bank International decided to partner with SESAMm due to several key factors:

1. SESAMm’s excellent coverage, including that of the CEE market, is a crucial need for RBI. This coverage enables RBI to obtain critical data and insights that help inform the bank’s decision-making process.
2. SESAMm’s product, TextReveal API, provides data and the underlying natural language processing (NLP) capabilities, enabling RBI to analyze data at a deeper level. This capability is significant for the bank’s operations in the CEE region, where multiple languages are spoken.
3. The relationship built between SESAMm and the RBI team during the proofs-of-concept (PoCs) brought confidence in the quality of SESAMm’s products and the potential value they could bring to the bank.
   
   Overall, the combination of SESAMm’s excellent coverage of the CEE market, NLP capabilities, and positive relationship with the RBI team made them the ideal partner for the bank’s data and analytics needs.

The Collaboration

After SESAMm and Raiffeisen Bank International agreed to collaborate, SESAMm began working with David Eschwé, the Head of Group Advanced Analytics at RBI. SESAMm onboarded the RBI team on TextReveal API and opened dashboards and API access to RBI. This access allowed RBI to generate historical datasets. SESAMm worked with the RBI team to define the roadmap and key milestones, particularly for integrating Central and Eastern European languages. This enabled RBI to access critical information efficiently that could help their internal teams generate early warning signals to better mitigate potential risks that can harm the bank. By working closely together, SESAMm and RBI achieved key milestones, demonstrating the value of the collaboration to both parties.

The results

By leveraging SESAMm’s solutions, RBI was able to monitor more than 1,000 clients, generating analytics on companies exposed to the Ukraine war and creating early warning signals to mitigate better potential risks that could harm the bank. Additionally, SESAMm’s solutions provide substantial yearly savings in raw-data-related costs, allowing RBI to allocate resources more efficiently and effectively. Through this collaboration, SESAMm helped RBI achieve more significant insights into their data, improve their risk management processes, and achieve considerable cost savings.

"Our partnership has been a great success. Thanks to SESAMm, we can now answer business-relevant questions within days, including those related to the critical topic of ESG” —David Eschwé, Head of Group Advanced Analytics in RBI.

About Raiffeisen Bank International

Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) is a leading Austrian banking group that operates across Central and Eastern Europe. It is headquartered in Vienna, Austria. RBI offers a wide range of banking and financial services, including corporate and investment banking, retail banking, leasing, and asset management. With a focus on sustainability and social responsibility, RBI is committed to providing high-quality banking services while supporting the communities in which it operates.

Reach out to SESAMm

Whether you’re a financial institution, an asset manager, or a data-driven company looking to gain insights into your data, SESAMm’s technology and team of experts can help you achieve your goals.

This is from SESAMm’s Deal Screening AI report. These reports are usually used by private equity deal teams and M&A teams to conduct pre-commercial due diligence on any company or project in minutes, and they contain insights and risks on the target company as well as a full competitive and market analysis.

ManTech International Corporation is a U.S.-based defense contractor specializing in cybersecurity, data analytics, and systems engineering solutions for national security and government agencies. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Herndon, Virginia, the company operates globally. It primarily serves U.S. defense, intelligence, and homeland security clients, delivering technology services that support mission-critical operations such as cybersecurity protection, artificial intelligence and analytics, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.

The broader defense and intelligence services market in which ManTech operates is expanding rapidly due to rising global defense spending, geopolitical tensions, and increasing demand for advanced digital and cyber capabilities. Within this context, ManTech has recently secured several growth signals, including a $200 million cybersecurity contract with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, partnerships to deploy secure AI technologies, and major analytics and systems contracts with the U.S. Army, reflecting continued demand for its technical expertise.

The report identifies several legal and reputational risks that could be relevant in a due diligence context. The most significant relate to labor and human rights issues, including allegations by former employees that the company confiscated passports and imposed hazardous working conditions under a U.S. Army contract in Kuwait, with a U.S. court allowing human-trafficking claims to proceed. Other previous issues include whistleblower retaliation claims linked to military contract billing practices and a civil fraud settlement involving misrepresentation of security clearance status. Environmental risks appear limited, with no major pollution or climate-related incidents identified.

In the competitive landscape, ManTech operates alongside firms such as Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos, CACI International, SAIC, and General Dynamics Information Technology. While not the largest player in the sector, it is regarded as a capable provider of secure IT and cybersecurity solutions for classified government missions. Overall, the report concludes that ManTech benefits from strong demand for defense technology and cyber capabilities but faces reputational exposure primarily tied to labor practices and contract-related compliance risks.

Reach out to SESAMm

SESAMm’s AI Deal Screening Reports analyze web data across over five million public and private companies to help investors quickly identify legal, ESG, and reputational risks during due diligence. To learn more about how you can generate these reports or to request a demo, reach out to one of our representatives.