By Magnus Billing, SESAMm advisor, with insights from Sylvain Forté, CEO of SESAMm

Investors have faced so-called “black swan” events throughout history: unexpected crises with severe consequences, often rationalized only in hindsight. Yet in an era defined by generative AI and vast, real-time data lakes, the question arises: could such events be understood and acted upon before they unfold?

The 2023 U.S. regional banking crisis offers a striking case study. The rapid collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank revealed how quickly stress can spread and how difficult it remains to connect early warning signs across sources.

While traditional financial analysis focuses on fundamentals such as capital ratios, liquidity positions, governance, and earnings, a new class of tools is expanding the lens. AI-driven controversy data aggregates and analyzes millions of public sources, from regulatory statements to media and industry discussions, to detect emerging issues as they surface. It does not replace quantitative and fundamental analysis; it complements it by tracking the visibility of risk as it enters public conversation.

This combination of approaches may offer investors a fuller picture: the structural risks visible in balance sheets, and the narrative risks revealed through public dialogue. To test this idea, we revisited the 2023 crisis through both perspectives, starting with what traditional analysis could have shown and what it missed.

Traditional Analysis and Its Blind Spots

In hindsight, the vulnerabilities of regional banks such as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were visible before the start of 2023. Unrealized losses on long-term securities, heavy reliance on uninsured deposits, and exposure to interest-rate risk pointed to potential liquidity stress. Yet these indicators were neither fully recognized nor connected in the market.

Traditional analysis has a tendency to evaluate banks based on their specific niches: Silicon Valley Bank focused on technology and venture financing, while Signature Bank served commercial real estate and digital asset clients. However, this approach risks overlooking the common and shared structural factors: concentrated depositor bases, high sensitivity to interest rate changes, rapid growth, and weaknesses in governance. Few, if any, observers recognized how rapidly these vulnerabilities could interact and escalate in a modern, digitalized banking environment.

While financial reports contained the data, there was little discussion connecting these risks in the public domain. But what about controversy data? Would it have caught the impending crisis? To find out, I asked Sylvain Forté, CEO of SESAMm, to provide an AI perspective.

What the Data Showed: Signature Bank

Signature Bank displayed a gradual pattern of emerging risk visible through public discussion. From mid-2022 onward, controversy data showed a rise in coverage related to governance practices, management oversight, and deposit concentration risks, often in the context of its ties to the digital-asset industry.

Importantly, it was not the crypto exposure itself that led to the bank’s collapse. The bank even announced in December 2022 that it would reduce its crypto-related business. Instead, the FDIC’s Supervision of Signature Bank report concluded that, “the root cause of SBNY’s failure was poor management. SBNY’s board of directors and management pursued rapid, unrestrained growth without developing and maintaining adequate risk management practices and controls.”

From a controversy perspective, those signals were publicly visible but fragmented. As shown in the chart above, AI-powered monitoring could have aggregated them into a clear view of a sustained drift in governance-related discussions, offering an early indication that oversight and internal controls were under pressure and risk was increasing.

What the Data Missed: Silicon Valley Bank

In contrast, Silicon Valley Bank presented a markedly different pattern. While controversy data registered some activity in late 2022,  including investor reactions to financial forecasts and coverage of routine business operations, these signals were fundamentally different in character from Signature Bank's governance-related warnings.

The September 2022 increase reflected market disappointment with financial guidance rather than operational or governance concerns. The subsequent activity captured normal business news, such as arranging syndicated loans. Critically, there was minimal public discussion of the bank's balance-sheet structure, unrealized losses, or depositor concentration risk until the crisis was already unfolding in March 2023.

This example underscores a key distinction: AI controversy monitoring excels at capturing reputational, governance, and operational risks as they enter public dialogue, but may not surface structural financial risks that remain confined to regulatory filings and analyst reports.

Lessons from Both Cases

The contrast between these two banks illustrates the complementary roles of quantitative and fundamental financial analysis vs AI-driven controversy monitoring.

In Signature Bank’s case, controversy data captured a steady accumulation of governance-related warnings, a slow build-up of risk visible through public discussion.

In Silicon Valley Bank’s case, the risks were structural but not yet discussed, leaving little for AI-powered controversy data to detect.

As Sylvain explains, “AI controversy monitoring helps investors understand how and when risks start to emerge in public dialogue. It does not replace fundamental analysis. It complements it by showing when the conversation begins to shift.”

Conclusion

Black swan events are often rationalized only in hindsight, but the 2023 regional banking crisis suggests a more nuanced reality. Some signals existed. What remained difficult was connecting them across sources before stress became contagion.

AI-driven controversy monitoring proved effective at surfacing governance and operational risks as they entered public dialogue, as Signature Bank demonstrated. Yet structural financial vulnerabilities like those at Silicon Valley Bank may not generate discussion until crisis forces the conversation, underscoring that no single lens captures all risk.

The advantage lies not in prediction, but in preparation: combining the structural risks visible in balance sheets with the narrative risks revealed through public discourse. In an era of real-time data and generative AI, the question is no longer whether information exists, but whether investors can connect it before it becomes consensus.

SESAMm is thrilled to welcome Stéphane Besson as the newest member of its board of directors. Stéphane is a seasoned expert in the finance industry with a rich background that includes BNPP and McKinsey. He has a notable track record, most prominently as the CEO of Coalition Greenwich for more than ten years. Under Stephane’s leadership, Coalition Greenwich, part of S&P, flourished to become the leader in providing strategic insights and analytics to the financial sector across Banks and Asset Managers.

“We are absolutely delighted to have Stéphane join our team. His remarkable journey in scaling Coalition Greenwich and advisory roles in several companies make him an ideal addition to SESAMm. His insights and strategic acumen will be incredibly valuable as we continue to expand our reach, especially in the European market where we have established a strong presence, and as we aim to increase our footprint in the US market,” commented Sylvain Forté, SESAMm’s CEO & Co-founder.

In his new role at SESAMm, Stéphane will not only be a board member but also an active strategic advisor. He currently also holds positions on Accelex and Acin boards and serves as chairman at Validis. His extensive experience guiding Coalition Greenwich's growth and advising various firms aligns perfectly with SESAMm’s mission. SESAMm, having recently secured $37MM in funding, is at a pivotal growth phase. The company specializes in leveraging AI to detect ESG controversies in public and private companies,

“I am very excited to join SESAMm. The quality of the team and their vision to bring more transparency to the ESG space convinced me immediately. I am looking forward to helping them deliver on their vision for their clients and the industry more broadly.” said Stéphane.

Stéphane's addition to the board is a testament to SESAMm's commitment to excellence and growth in AI-powered ESG insights. His strategic insights will contribute significantly to guiding SESAMm's growth in the global market.

With summer here, travelers are turning to vacation rental platforms more than ever to plan their getaways. As these platforms grow, it’s important to understand the ESG controversies they face, impacting users, hosts, and local communities worldwide.

Vacation rental platforms like Airbnb, Booking.com, Expedia, and Tripadvisor have faced several ESG challenges recently, including regulatory issues, safety and privacy concerns, and social controversies related to housing affordability and community displacement.
Different companies face varied risks: Airbnb deals with global restrictions and legal issues, Booking.com faces antitrust fines and tax disputes, Expedia contends with operational challenges, and Tripadvisor grapples with reputational concerns. All, however, must balance growth with ethical practices.

What are the most pressing ESG challenges currently facing the vacation rental sector?
Read to find out.

Booking.com has encountered various ESG risks due to regulatory scrutiny and legal issues. The company faced a €413 million fine in Spain for abusing market dominance with price parity clauses and a €94 million tax settlement in Italy for VAT compliance. Additionally, Russia penalized it for antitrust violations, while hotel operators in Japan filed lawsuits over unpaid fees. Legal scrutiny also surrounds its listings in the occupied West Bank, with investigations by Dutch prosecutors. In the U.S., a court ruled that Booking.com illegally scraped Ryanair’s website. Finally, a significant data breach exposed millions of guests’ sensitive information, raising cybersecurity concerns, and planned workforce reductions highlight ongoing operational risks for stakeholders globally.

Key Controversies:

• Booking.com fined 413 million euros by the Spanish authority CNMC for unfair competition
• ‍Booking.com to pay 94 million euros to settle Italian tax dispute
• Firms in Japan sue Booking.com in Tokyo over unpaid deposits‍
• Booking.com's listing in West Bank examined by Dutch prosecutor‍
• Booking.com aims to lay off 25% of its workforce

Airbnb: Global Crackdowns and Controversies Rise

Airbnb is facing significant regulatory and legal challenges globally, including Spain's order to remove over 65,000 listings, Italy's €576 million tax settlement, and stricter rental rules in Greece and France. In the US, cities like New York have imposed tight short-term rental limits, while Airbnb is dealing with class-action lawsuits in Canada and pricing accusations in Australia. Safety and privacy issues also plague the platform, including lawsuits related to guest deaths. Furthermore, Airbnb has been criticized for its listings on occupied Palestinian land and its impact on housing affordability. In 2023, the company cut 1,900 jobs, or about 25% of its workforce, increasing its ESG risks amidst evolving pressures.

Key Controversies:

• Spain orders removal of over 65,000 Airbnb rentals for regulatory violations
• Italy bans Airbnb self-check-ins
• Airbnb fined 300,000 euros for lack of consumer information
• Short-term rental restrictions hit Airbnb in New York
• Airbnb accused by Australian regulator of misleading pricing

Expedia: Governance Gaps and Growing Legal Risks

Expedia Group faces several ESG risks, though generally less severe than its larger peers. Key challenges include a $33 million penalty in Australia for misleading hotel rates, 1,500 job cuts, antitrust investigations in Europe, and a $29.8 million payment under the Helms-Burton Act. Legal issues also involve unpaid commissions, tax avoidance claims, and COVID-19 flight refund disputes. Governance problems include executive departures and a reverse racism lawsuit, along with data breaches affecting millions. Overall, these risks are significant but less severe than those of competitors.

Key Controversies:

• Australia fines Expedia Group's Trivago $33 mln on misleading hotel room rates
• Expedia is cutting 1,500 jobs
• US court orders Expedia to pay 29.8 million in the Helms-Burton application
• White candidate sues Expedia alleging reverse racism in hiring process
• Expedia faces class action over COVID-19 flight refund refusals

Conclusion

In conclusion, the vacation rentals sector faces significant ESG challenges that threaten its growth and credibility. Major players like Booking.com, Airbnb, and Expedia must address regulatory scrutiny, safety concerns, and social issues to meet the evolving expectations of travelers. By prioritizing transparency, community engagement, and compliance, these platforms can rebuild trust and promote responsible tourism. Embracing these changes not only mitigates risks but also positions them to lead in sustainable travel and reshape the future of vacation rentals.

Reach out to SESAMm

TextReveal’s web data analysis of over five million public and private companies is essential for keeping tabs on ESG investment risks. To learn more about how you can analyze web data or to request a demo, reach out to one of our representatives.